I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
Stephen C. O'Connell Center · November 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread FLA -9.0 Home covered
O/U 156.0 Over
Money FLA -400 / FSU +310
Model Predictions
Spread Total FLA win
Actual FLA +21 157 Won
Massey FLA -3.2 (+17.8)
Massey Totals 166.2 (-9.2)
Bradley-Terry 71%
Weighted B-T 77%
Efficiency Plus ML FLA -6.1 (+14.9) 158.2 (-1.2) 81%
Baseline Tuned ML FLA -3.8 (+17.2) 154.9 (+2.1) 59%
Baseline ML FLA -5.2 (+15.8) 157.3 (-0.3) 58%
Baseline Plus ML FLA -5.1 (+15.9) 159.1 (-2.1) 65%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 12, 2025 FLA 7876 FSU
Nov 15, 2024 FLA 8774 FSU
Nov 19, 2022 FLA 7667 FSU
Nov 14, 2021 FLA 7155 FSU
Dec 12, 2020 FSU 8371 FLA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FLA FSU
Overall 24-12 17-16
Conference 11-7 10-10
Home 14-1 10-7
Away 3-7 4-7
Neutral 7-4 3-2
Last 5 2-1 2-0
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 85.6 76.5
Avg Pts Against 79.2 76.3
Massey 3.4 (#114) 9.0 (#41)
Bradley-Terry 0.13 (#163) 0.88 (#110)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.43 (#155) 1.28 (#109)
RPI 0.501 (#180) 0.635 (#67)
Shooting & Four Factors FLA FSU
FG% 48.4% 50.7%
3PT% 31.7% 37.7%
REB / G 44.0 39.5
OREB / G 18.3 11.5
AST / TO 1.15 1.59
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.4% 59.2%
TOV% 18.4% 18.0%
ORB% 48.2% 31.9%
FT Rate 25.8% 19.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.0% 43.4%
Opp TOV% 17.0% 24.7%
DRB% 71.3% 70.0%
Opp FT Rate 15.7% 31.9%

Game Analysis

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