Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
| Money | FLA -400 FSU +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +21 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -3.2 (+17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -5.1 (+15.9) | 159.1 (-2.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -6.1 (+14.9) | 158.2 (-1.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -3.8 (+17.2) | 154.9 (+2.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -5.2 (+15.8) | 157.3 (-0.3) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | FLA 78 – 76 FSU |
| Nov 15, 2024 | FLA 87 – 74 FSU |
| Nov 19, 2022 | FLA 76 – 67 FSU |
| Nov 14, 2021 | FLA 71 – 55 FSU |
| Dec 12, 2020 | FSU 83 – 71 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#114) | 9.0 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#163) | 0.88 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#155) | 1.28 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#180) | 0.635 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 18.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 59.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 48.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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