Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +16 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -4.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -5.9 (+10.1) | 148.8 (-22.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -4.7 (+11.3) | 148.4 (-22.4) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2025 | FLA 78 – 76 FSU |
| Nov 15, 2024 | FLA 87 – 74 FSU |
| Nov 18, 2023 | FLA 89 – 68 FSU |
| Nov 19, 2022 | FLA 76 – 67 FSU |
| Dec 12, 2020 | FSU 83 – 71 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#164) | 7.9 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#115) | 0.35 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#119) | 0.54 (#125) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 49.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.0 | 24.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 43.9% | 57.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 31.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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