Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UGA -800 BUCK +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +4 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UGA -8.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -4.5 (-0.5) | 135.0 (-9.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -7.2 (-3.2) | 138.5 (-12.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -5.4 (-1.4) | 140.3 (-14.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -6.5 (-2.5) | 139.4 (-13.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#193) | -0.4 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#105) | 0.06 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#99) | 0.01 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#144) | 0.500 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 52.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 44.8% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 58.7% |
| TOV% | 24.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 8.0% |
Game Analysis
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