Betting Lines
| Spread | RID -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | CARK +250 RID -350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +5 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | RID -10.2 (+15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+38.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RID -4.6 (+9.6) | 138.6 (+36.4) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RID -5.7 (+10.7) | 141.1 (+33.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RID -5.4 (+10.4) | 138.0 (+37.0) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RID -5.2 (+10.2) | 138.1 (+36.9) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 6-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.4 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#303) | 3.1 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#284) | -0.79 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.05 (#289) | -0.99 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.272 (#339) | 0.514 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.6% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 61.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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