Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -150 SOU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +8 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -0.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -0.2 (-7.8) | 131.0 (+9.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -0.9 (-7.1) | 130.8 (+9.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -0.3 (-7.7) | 130.1 (+9.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -0.4 (-7.6) | 131.4 (+8.6) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 11-7 |
| Home | 3-14 | 9-2 |
| Away | 0-12 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L16 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.3 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#305) | 1.0 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.09 (#357) | -0.78 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.26 (#354) | -1.03 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.222 (#353) | 0.560 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 49.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.