Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | FAU -600 DETM +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +21 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -14.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -10.8 (+10.2) | 150.6 (-19.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -9.1 (+11.9) | 148.0 (-17.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -9.9 (+11.1) | 148.6 (-17.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -9.8 (+11.2) | 150.2 (-19.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 9-11 |
| Home | 17-0 | 9-5 |
| Away | 11-3 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#53) | 2.0 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#19) | -0.39 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.88 (#14) | -0.57 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.810 (#9) | 0.479 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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