Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -8000 RMU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +9 | 111 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -21.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -21.6 (-12.6) | 137.0 (-26.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -18.3 (-9.3) | 133.9 (-22.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -15.4 (-6.4) | 136.6 (-25.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#122) | -10.3 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#152) | -0.47 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#147) | -0.75 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#132) | 0.500 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | RMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 31.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 16.7% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 34.9% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 34.4% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.1% | 63.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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