Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | WAG +100 FAIR +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +16 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -12.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -7.6 (+8.4) | 135.7 (-15.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -7.1 (+8.9) | 140.5 (-20.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -8.5 (+7.5) | 140.9 (-20.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -7.8 (+8.2) | 142.2 (-22.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2023 | FAIR 63 – 51 WAG |
| Dec 23, 2021 | WAG 63 – 50 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-6 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.3 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#134) | -1.3 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#87) | -1.18 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#92) | -1.56 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#87) | 0.375 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 19.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 56.0% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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