Well you know that it's a shame and a pity you were raised up in the city / And you never learned nothing about country ways "Not So Sweet Martha Lorraine" - Country Joe and the Fish
Total Mortgage Arena · December 23, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread WAG -1.5 Away covered
O/U 134.0 Under
Money FAIR +115 / WAG -135
Model Predictions
Spread Total FAIR win
Actual WAG +13 113 Lost
Massey WAG -1.6 (-11.4) — —
Massey Totals — 135.8 (-22.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 30% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 18% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ WAG -1.4 (-11.6) 131.5 (-18.5) 40% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML FAIR -2.2 (-15.2) 135.5 (-22.5) 54% ✗
Baseline ML FAIR -0.6 (-13.6) 134.7 (-21.7) 50% ✗
Baseline Plus ML FAIR -0.3 (-13.3) 134.3 (-21.3) 52% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 17, 2023 FAIR 63 – 51 WAG
Nov 19, 2022 WAG 68 – 52 FAIR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FAIR WAG
Overall 15-18 21-6
Conference 8-12 15-3
Home 6-9 13-1
Away 8-8 10-5
Neutral 1-1 0-0
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.5 73.3
Avg Pts Against 66.3 65.4
Massey 2.9 (#118) 8.8 (#53)
Bradley-Terry 0.15 (#166) 1.83 (#55)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.01 (#177) 2.43 (#55)
RPI 0.485 (#197) 0.555 (#89)
Shooting & Four Factors FAIR WAG
FG% 47.1% 45.8%
3PT% 33.6% 31.0%
REB / G 36.5 36.8
OREB / G 10.3 10.8
AST / TO 1.15 1.07
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.2% 50.8%
TOV% 16.6% 21.7%
ORB% 31.3% 32.8%
FT Rate 17.7% 17.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.9% 47.0%
Opp TOV% 16.1% 24.8%
DRB% 74.9% 76.1%
Opp FT Rate 21.0% 25.8%

Game Analysis

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