Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | FAIR +115 WAG -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +13 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | WAG -1.6 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -1.4 (-11.6) | 131.5 (-18.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -2.2 (-15.2) | 135.5 (-22.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -0.6 (-13.6) | 134.7 (-21.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -0.3 (-13.3) | 134.3 (-21.3) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2023 | FAIR 63 – 51 WAG |
| Nov 19, 2022 | WAG 68 – 52 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 21-6 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-9 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-8 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 65.4 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#118) | 8.8 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#166) | 1.83 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#177) | 2.43 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#197) | 0.555 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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