Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -300 WAG +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +12 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -9.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -6.1 (+5.9) | 133.2 (-19.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -6.8 (+5.2) | 132.4 (-18.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -6.9 (+5.1) | 131.9 (-17.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -6.6 (+5.4) | 131.8 (-17.8) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2022 | WAG 68 – 52 FAIR |
| Dec 23, 2021 | WAG 63 – 50 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 10-6 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 64.1 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#262) | -9.5 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#269) | -1.10 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#275) | -2.21 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#277) | 0.435 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 34.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 40.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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