Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Leo D. Mahoney Arena · December 17, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread FAIR -7.5 Home covered
O/U 132.5 Under
Money FAIR -300 / WAG +300
Model Predictions
Spread Total FAIR win
Actual FAIR +12 114 Won
Massey FAIR -9.7 (+2.3) — —
Massey Totals — 134.2 (-20.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 75% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 87% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ FAIR -6.1 (+5.9) 133.2 (-19.2) 72% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML FAIR -6.8 (+5.2) 132.4 (-18.4) 75% ✓
Baseline ML FAIR -6.9 (+5.1) 131.9 (-17.9) 73% ✓
Baseline Plus ML FAIR -6.6 (+5.4) 131.8 (-17.8) 73% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 19, 2022 WAG 68 – 52 FAIR
Dec 23, 2021 WAG 63 – 50 FAIR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FAIR WAG
Overall 24-13 17-16
Conference 14-6 7-9
Home 10-4 7-5
Away 10-6 9-10
Neutral 4-3 1-1
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 75.1 62.0
Avg Pts Against 71.7 64.1
Massey -4.5 (#262) -9.5 (#322)
Bradley-Terry -0.97 (#269) -1.10 (#276)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.41 (#275) -2.21 (#308)
RPI 0.438 (#277) 0.435 (#281)
Shooting & Four Factors FAIR WAG
FG% 41.8% 34.6%
3PT% 33.3% 29.9%
REB / G 32.6 33.8
OREB / G 9.4 11.5
AST / TO 0.86 1.08
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.5% 40.8%
TOV% 18.4% 14.9%
ORB% 26.0% 27.6%
FT Rate 22.3% 16.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.4% 51.2%
Opp TOV% 19.8% 19.2%
DRB% 65.0% 67.9%
Opp FT Rate 20.4% 24.0%

Game Analysis

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