Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -2000 UNCW +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +36 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -23.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -21.5 (+14.5) | 134.2 (+1.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -17.0 (+19.0) | 133.7 (+2.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -19.9 (+16.1) | 134.1 (+1.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -24.4 (+11.6) | 134.9 (+1.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#21) | -4.1 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#57) | -0.90 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#49) | -1.05 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.715 (#24) | 0.458 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 32.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 16.2% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 34.8% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 39.6% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.7% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 82.5% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 36.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.