Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | STMN +170 TROY -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +2 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -5.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (+22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -3.7 (+5.7) | 135.5 (+18.5) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -7.0 (+9.0) | 133.8 (+20.2) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -2.8 (+4.8) | 137.6 (+16.4) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -3.2 (+5.2) | 136.5 (+17.5) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#142) | 7.4 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#232) | 1.75 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#236) | 2.42 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#230) | 0.479 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 84.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 46.1% |
Game Analysis
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