Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -700 HPU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +10 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -8.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -10.4 (-0.4) | 144.3 (+1.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -9.5 (+0.5) | 143.2 (+2.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -7.4 (+2.6) | 146.0 (-0.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#137) | 1.8 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#92) | 0.52 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#94) | 0.74 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#83) | 0.500 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 53.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 42.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 62.9% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 39.3% |
| FT Rate | 41.3% | 31.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 35.0% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 34.9% |
Game Analysis
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