Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | LAF -161 CCSU +132 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +5 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -4.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-30.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -0.9 (+4.1) | 134.3 (-29.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -1.8 (+3.2) | 133.2 (-28.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -2.1 (+2.9) | 135.8 (-30.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -2.0 (+3.0) | 136.5 (-31.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-23 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 5-7 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-16 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#215) | -6.6 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#332) | -0.85 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.18 (#332) | -0.62 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.370 (#298) | 0.530 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 11.0% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 13.7% |
Game Analysis
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