Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | GMU -163 BEL +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +4 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -5.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -3.3 (-7.3) | 140.2 (-12.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -2.7 (-6.7) | 141.0 (-13.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -3.7 (-7.7) | 141.4 (-13.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -3.9 (-7.9) | 142.0 (-14.0) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2020 | BEL 77 – 67 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#131) | -2.9 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#141) | -1.34 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#150) | -2.30 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#83) | 0.200 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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