Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -213 UVA +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +7 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -6.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -3.0 (-10.0) | 144.8 (+20.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -3.4 (-10.4) | 143.6 (+21.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -3.0 (-10.0) | 148.3 (+16.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -3.3 (-10.3) | 149.9 (+15.1) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 60.5 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#6) | 9.0 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#69) | 0.47 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#74) | 0.61 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#90) | 0.411 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.3% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 48.0% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.09 | 2.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.1% | 61.4% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 11.7% |
| ORB% | 41.1% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 37.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.6% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 78.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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