Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -138 EKU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +2 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -12.1 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -6.2 (-8.2) | 153.3 (-1.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -4.4 (-6.4) | 154.8 (-2.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -6.8 (-8.8) | 155.2 (-3.2) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 10-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#51) | -3.9 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#7) | -0.19 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.81 (#6) | -0.83 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.812 (#7) | 0.450 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 11.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.