Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | NU -700 PFW +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +8 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | NU -24.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -25.1 (-17.1) | 131.7 (-19.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -23.4 (-15.4) | 133.4 (-21.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -18.8 (-10.8) | 131.9 (-19.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#22) | -5.8 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#25) | -0.17 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.40 (#26) | -0.57 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#62) | 0.419 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 35.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 45.3 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 14.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.9% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 83.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 10.9% |
Game Analysis
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