Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ETAM +333 UNCA -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +8 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -10.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 177.5 (-41.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -5.4 (-2.6) | 157.0 (-21.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -2.0 (-6.0) | 156.8 (-20.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -6.5 (-1.5) | 157.4 (-21.4) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETAM | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 16-2 |
| Home | 5-5 | 13-0 |
| Away | 7-12 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#227) | 8.1 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#189) | 3.01 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#199) | 4.81 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.348 (#305) | 0.812 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETAM | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 59.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 13.6% |
Game Analysis
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