Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | UNCO -200 SJSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +11 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCO -5.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -1.3 (-12.3) | 136.7 (+12.3) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -2.0 (-13.0) | 138.0 (+11.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -2.0 (-13.0) | 136.1 (+12.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -2.6 (-13.6) | 136.8 (+12.2) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 24, 2021 | SJSU 75 – 74 UNCO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 6-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#316) | -5.6 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#150) | -0.20 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#162) | -0.15 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#98) | 0.438 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 29.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 42.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 11.8% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 79.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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