Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | CLE -450 UAPB +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +9 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -8.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -6.2 (+2.8) | 134.4 (-9.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -7.7 (+1.3) | 132.3 (-7.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLE -5.2 (+3.8) | 135.2 (-10.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLE -5.6 (+3.4) | 134.9 (-9.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-9 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#192) | -1.2 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#201) | -1.45 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#245) | -1.32 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.371 (#297) | 0.518 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 19.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 13.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 61.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 44.0% |
Game Analysis
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