Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | OKST -225 UCF +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +4 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | OKST -1.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -0.3 (-3.7) | 138.3 (-22.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -0.2 (-3.8) | 135.4 (-19.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -0.1 (-3.9) | 135.1 (-19.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -0.2 (-3.8) | 136.1 (-20.1) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | OKST 111 – 104 UCF |
| Jan 7, 2026 | OKST 87 – 76 UCF |
| Mar 6, 2025 | UCF 83 – 70 OKST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | OKST 104 – 95 UCF |
| Mar 12, 2024 | UCF 77 – 62 OKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 65.5 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#75) | 4.9 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#238) | 0.49 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#204) | 1.48 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#224) | 0.453 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 16.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 42.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 13.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.6% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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