Betting Lines
| Spread | ARMY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | W&M +110 ARMY -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +9 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | W&M -6.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (-18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -1.0 (+8.0) | 146.3 (-3.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -4.0 (+5.0) | 148.9 (-5.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -2.4 (+6.6) | 153.5 (-10.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -2.5 (+6.5) | 151.3 (-8.3) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-14 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#276) | -2.9 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#342) | -0.10 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.01 (#349) | -0.69 (#220) |
| RPI | 0.328 (#317) | 0.500 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 52.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 58.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 13.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.6% | 61.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 84.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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