Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | SFBK +170 SPU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFBK +3 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -0.7 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -1.5 (+4.5) | 136.2 (-17.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | SPU -7.1 (+10.1) | 131.3 (-12.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | SPU -1.4 (+4.4) | 140.0 (-21.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -1.6 (+4.6) | 139.5 (-20.5) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 9, 2021 | SFBK 71 – 60 SPU |
| Dec 23, 2020 | SPU 70 – 64 SFBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFBK | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -14.5 (#354) | -5.4 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#289) | 0.05 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#298) | -0.02 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.349 (#303) | 0.560 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFBK | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.3% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 20.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.4% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 11.2% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 44.4% |
Game Analysis
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