Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFBK +11 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -12.8 (-23.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -10.5 (-21.5) | 134.7 (-3.7) | 76% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | SPU -9.0 (-20.0) | 128.4 (+2.6) | 77% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | SPU -9.8 (-20.8) | 133.1 (-2.1) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -10.2 (-21.2) | 133.0 (-2.0) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2022 | SFBK 61 – 58 SPU |
| Dec 23, 2020 | SPU 70 – 64 SFBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 3-9 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#235) | -11.2 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#249) | -4.68 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#193) | -6.75 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#211) | 0.306 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.7% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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