Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -6.5 Home covered |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +6 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -3.7 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -0.3 (-5.7) | 143.9 (-9.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -1.2 (-4.8) | 143.9 (-9.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -1.2 (-4.8) | 145.3 (-11.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -0.8 (-5.2) | 144.8 (-10.8) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2022 | SFBK 61 – 58 SPU |
| Dec 9, 2021 | SFBK 71 – 60 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFBK | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-10 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 4-6 | 8-3 |
| Away | 5-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 61.5 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#260) | 1.6 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#137) | 0.66 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#158) | 1.33 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#146) | 0.543 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFBK | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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