Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -125 BOIS +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +22 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | BOIS -3.5 (-18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -3.1 (-18.9) | 139.4 (-21.4) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -2.0 (-20.0) | 134.5 (-16.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -1.2 (-20.8) | 135.3 (-17.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -1.3 (-20.7) | 136.4 (-18.4) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-8 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 65.0 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#236) | 0.7 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#104) | -0.86 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#112) | -0.51 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.701 (#27) | 0.487 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | BOIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 22.2% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 28.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 80.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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