Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | LIB -700 USM +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +4 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -1.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -0.2 (-3.8) | 138.9 (+9.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -2.4 (-1.6) | 136.9 (+11.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -0.1 (-4.1) | 133.7 (+14.3) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 19-1 | 15-0 |
| Away | 6-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 67.5 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#208) | 8.4 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#155) | 2.69 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#160) | 4.43 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#162) | 0.583 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 34.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 20.8% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 38.9% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 35.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.5% | 4.7% |
Game Analysis
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