Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | IONA -138 UVM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +21 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -11.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -10.7 (+10.3) | 138.8 (-17.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -10.9 (+10.1) | 142.5 (-21.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -10.5 (+10.5) | 143.6 (-22.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -13.0 (+8.0) | 143.1 (-22.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | IONA 83 – 78 UVM |
| Nov 16, 2024 | IONA 62 – 59 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-2 |
| Home | 11-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#24) | -1.3 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#88) | -1.40 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#56) | -2.18 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.661 (#47) | 0.432 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 3.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.92 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 9.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 10.9% |
| FT Rate | 11.2% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 79.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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