Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | IONA +150 UVM -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +3 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -9.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -3.2 (-0.2) | 134.5 (-13.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -3.2 (-0.2) | 129.1 (-8.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -3.8 (-0.8) | 131.4 (-10.4) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | IONA 83 – 78 UVM |
| Nov 19, 2022 | IONA 71 – 50 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-3 |
| Home | 7-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 65.0 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#258) | -5.1 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.90 (#353) | 1.22 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.70 (#358) | 1.75 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#197) | 0.628 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 32.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 19.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 39.0% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 45.2% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 13.0% |
Game Analysis
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