We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
← All models

Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
60–27 on winners spread MAE 9.5 88 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Virginia @ Baylor +3.3 149.9 67% 86–79 ✗
Delaware @ Duke +24.3 136.8 86% 58–92 ✓
Fairfield @ Wagner +8.5 140.9 73% 52–68 ✓
Columbia @ Maine +15.9 145.2 87% 70–93 ✓
Troy @ St. Thomas -3.2 136.5 45% 76–78 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Cleveland State +5.6 134.9 74% 58–67 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Wofford +4.8 146.4 67% 58–60 ✓
Campbell @ App State +3.1 138.2 63% 63–58 ✗
UC San Diego @ Navy +17.3 137.1 88% 69–78 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ George Washington +13.6 148.5 87% 64–69 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Rice +0.7 139.9 32% 71–88 ✓
Utah Valley @ Morgan State -3.1 133.3 36% 72–73 ✗
UCF @ Oklahoma State -0.2 136.1 48% 60–56 ✓
Charlotte @ Tulsa -2.5 135.8 38% 68–65 ✓
Southern Miss @ Liberty -0.2 138.9 56% 76–72 ✓
Pennsylvania @ West Virginia +18.4 141.8 87% 58–92 ✓
Morehead State @ Vanderbilt +4.2 135.8 66% 43–76 ✓
Bucknell @ Georgia +6.5 139.4 75% 61–65 ✓
Lipscomb @ Notre Dame +13.9 152.4 85% 65–66 ✓
Bellarmine @ Clemson +6.6 135.6 75% 66–76 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina Upstate — — — 78–79 —
Fairleigh Dickinson @ SIU Edwardsville -2.5 157.6 43% 78–79 ✗
South Carolina @ Davidson +5.1 146.9 70% 60–69 ✓
UT Martin @ Ole Miss +25.2 141.8 90% 68–72 ✓
Vermont @ Iona +8.7 143.6 76% 50–71 ✓
Southern Utah @ Kansas +18.0 147.6 86% 76–82 ✓
Texas Southern @ Auburn +18.0 140.1 88% 56–72 ✓
North Alabama @ Mississippi Valley State -6.1 144.6 30% 68–76 ✗
Western Michigan @ Houston Christian +0.4 134.5 31% 90–84 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Northern Arizona +4.3 137.5 65% 54–63 ✓
Nevada @ UT Arlington +1.9 139.4 67% 62–43 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northwestern +25.1 131.7 88% 52–60 ✓
South Alabama @ Oklahoma +10.2 130.7 75% 60–64 ✓
Florida @ Florida State -3.2 145.8 38% 76–67 ✓
Villanova @ Michigan State +13.4 133.3 85% 71–73 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ UConn +24.4 134.9 90% 50–86 ✓
UNC Asheville @ East Texas A&M -5.4 157.0 32% 72–64 ✓
Boston College @ George Mason +4.9 135.8 68% 71–56 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Alabama +26.7 133.3 90% 62–104 ✓
Denver @ Idaho State +11.3 133.3 82% 70–69 ✗
Grambling @ Grand Canyon +4.8 133.4 64% 48–81 ✓
Arkansas State @ UC Davis +12.1 138.9 82% 60–75 ✓
Southern @ California -0.4 131.4 54% 74–66 ✓
Merrimack @ Montana +12.3 145.7 85% 51–62 ✓
Boise State @ Loyola Chicago -1.3 136.4 49% 70–48 ✓
Santa Clara @ DePaul +3.3 148.5 60% 69–61 ✗
Illinois @ UCLA +0.8 145.8 58% 79–70 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Pacific +15.6 159.2 86% 94–91 ✗
High Point @ UNLV +10.4 144.3 81% 68–78 ✓
Cal Poly @ Stanford +6.6 132.2 74% 43–80 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ USC +4.9 136.8 76% 74–83 ✓
Rider @ Central Arkansas -5.2 138.1 37% 85–90 ✗
Western Carolina @ Lamar -4.2 141.6 29% 98–91 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Lafayette +2.0 136.5 65% 50–55 ✓
Niagara @ Stetson +6.6 135.7 74% 66–62 ✗
Robert Morris @ Dayton +21.6 137.0 89% 51–60 ✓
Saint Louis @ Maryland +1.4 138.8 61% 67–95 ✓
Elon @ NC State +32.4 154.5 91% 63–74 ✓
Saint Peter's @ St. Francis Brooklyn -1.6 139.5 29% 58–61 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Binghamton +11.5 152.4 82% 75–60 ✗
Winthrop @ Mercer +8.0 158.9 79% 68–77 ✓
Chicago State @ Kent State +27.2 149.6 90% 59–88 ✓
Bowling Green @ St. Bonaventure +6.1 140.6 72% 68–81 ✓
Lindenwood @ McNeese +3.5 136.3 61% 78–60 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Oakland -0.0 161.7 59% 90–92 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Missouri State +5.6 132.0 63% 51–75 ✓
Evansville @ SMU +4.5 140.6 68% 47–55 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Georgia State +3.5 140.9 68% 53–57 ✓
Buffalo @ Howard -1.5 153.7 48% 59–63 ✗
San José State @ Northern Colorado +2.6 136.8 45% 80–69 ✗
American University @ NJIT +3.6 129.4 54% 58–53 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Bradley +4.8 139.5 76% 60–73 ✓
Army @ William & Mary +2.5 151.3 65% 67–76 ✓
Campbell @ SE Louisiana -1.9 137.6 48% 69–70 ✗
Miami @ Providence -0.1 147.8 50% 74–64 ✓
South Carolina State @ North Florida +5.1 155.9 64% 66–72 ✓
Utah Tech @ Idaho +3.1 137.4 57% 81–71 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Gardner-Webb +7.0 140.2 82% 64–66 ✓
UIC @ Fordham +12.0 137.6 84% 65–79 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Longwood +9.9 152.7 84% 83–99 ✓
Northeastern @ Syracuse +7.7 147.6 79% 48–76 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ UNC Asheville +6.2 153.3 66% 77–75 ✗
Belmont @ George Mason +3.9 142.0 65% 66–62 ✗
Fresno State @ North Texas +5.0 126.5 50% 52–61 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Florida Atlantic +9.8 150.2 78% 55–76 ✓
Youngstown State @ UC San Diego -11.8 149.5 16% 73–54 ✓
Western Michigan @ Rice -1.0 147.4 41% 88–96 ✗
Norfolk State @ Alabama A&M -6.7 145.3 24% 89–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.