Anger is an energy. "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–21 on winners spread MAE 9.6 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Stephen F. Austin @ South Dakota State +8.5 145.3 76% 93–82 ✗
Princeton @ Marist -5.9 144.5 32% 62–55 ✓
Bryant @ Florida International -6.5 159.6 39% 91–85 ✓
Coppin State @ Marshall +17.8 161.7 87% 67–86 ✓
St. Thomas @ Merrimack -9.1 135.4 20% 72–61 ✓
Kennesaw State @ App State +3.6 142.6 66% 71–67 ✗
The Citadel @ Butler +23.5 144.5 89% 42–89 ✓
Stonehill @ Holy Cross -3.5 154.1 41% 81–79 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ VMI -3.0 146.1 34% 93–67 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Valparaiso +13.6 144.5 86% 64–68 ✓
Seattle U @ Portland +11.1 149.9 81% 80–68 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Houston Christian +0.5 132.7 41% 84–77 ✗
UC Irvine @ Pepperdine +6.8 139.1 68% 55–64 ✓
Hofstra @ Saint Mary's +8.0 142.4 79% 48–76 ✓
Nicholls @ BYU +14.2 146.4 88% 73–87 ✓
Troy @ Montana +2.3 145.0 57% 73–62 ✗
Portland State @ Oregon State +6.9 140.0 71% 79–66 ✗
Murray State @ Tulsa +3.5 152.0 62% 77–60 ✗
Furman @ South Carolina -8.5 143.6 23% 79–60 ✓
James Madison @ North Carolina -6.7 155.0 35% 64–80 ✗
Lindenwood @ Western Carolina +4.8 139.2 68% 88–90 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Campbell +2.3 138.9 59% 61–85 ✓
La Salle @ Georgetown -1.1 149.7 44% 62–69 ✗
Boston University @ New Hampshire +3.8 150.2 66% 64–57 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Eastern Kentucky +1.7 135.6 53% 75–61 ✗
Western Michigan @ Georgia Southern -2.3 146.2 45% 57–63 ✗
Central Connecticut @ UMBC +2.6 148.9 54% 76–78 ✓
Miami @ Maryland +3.8 132.1 67% 70–88 ✓
Massachusetts @ Charlotte +4.3 130.9 67% 60–54 ✗
Old Dominion @ Davidson -3.6 150.2 38% 61–66 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Longwood +10.5 155.0 80% 61–56 ✗
Montana State @ North Dakota -3.2 134.0 38% 81–71 ✓
Radford @ Army -4.5 147.0 36% 90–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ Navy +4.0 149.7 68% 67–80 ✓
Siena @ Harvard +5.6 151.7 75% 59–69 ✓
Alabama State @ Pittsburgh +11.5 146.3 86% 54–73 ✓
Lamar @ McNeese -4.5 149.0 39% 57–66 ✗
SE Louisiana @ App State +1.7 139.9 60% 74–83 ✓
Wake Forest @ Loyola Marymount +0.2 145.8 51% 75–77 ✓
Illinois @ Virginia -0.7 147.4 49% 61–70 ✗
Texas Southern @ Samford +22.7 141.7 90% 63–78 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ UT Martin -0.8 138.3 60% 79–80 ✗
Wagner @ Seton Hall +7.7 134.4 77% 44–82 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Georgia State -1.1 144.8 56% 68–74 ✗
Providence @ Saint Louis +0.7 155.3 51% 73–76 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Charleston +1.1 155.2 56% 75–77 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Nebraska +8.0 134.9 79% 58–82 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech -2.5 147.5 41% 62–69 ✗
Texas A&M @ Loyola Chicago -2.1 149.6 38% 67–51 ✓
DePaul @ Oklahoma State +0.9 136.8 57% 78–82 ✓
VMI @ Fairleigh Dickinson +2.3 146.6 62% 89–93 ✓
Delaware State @ UConn +26.3 135.7 91% 60–95 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Wofford +11.0 145.8 81% 64–78 ✓
VCU @ Memphis +9.3 142.1 77% 47–62 ✓
Queens University @ Morgan State -2.5 143.8 35% 74–64 ✓
UCLA @ Baylor -1.1 154.4 46% 75–80 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Indiana +21.8 153.1 87% 56–86 ✓
Drake @ Wyoming -3.7 146.1 34% 61–56 ✓
Penn State @ Colorado State -1.6 137.2 46% 68–56 ✓
Milwaukee @ Iowa State +30.8 135.9 91% 53–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.