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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–8 on winners spread MAE 9.1 33 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Colorado @ Boise State -4.9 139.5 31% 55–68 ✗
Kentucky @ Gonzaga +6.0 155.5 74% 72–88 ✓
Ohio @ Michigan +9.2 153.7 79% 66–70 ✓
Jackson State @ Little Rock +2.5 150.8 43% 91–94 ✓
Green Bay @ Utah Valley +6.2 131.9 77% 56–79 ✓
Santa Clara @ UCF +1.8 140.6 56% 50–57 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Missouri +28.3 152.3 91% 62–83 ✓
Tarleton State @ Boston College -2.7 139.4 40% 70–54 ✓
Houston @ Oregon -3.3 128.9 26% 66–56 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Cal Poly -0.4 134.8 29% 73–68 ✓
Illinois State @ LSU +3.7 135.1 69% 61–77 ✓
Kansas City @ Toledo +6.5 148.2 73% 83–71 ✗
Bryant @ Detroit Mercy -4.2 150.6 32% 98–88 ✓
Austin Peay @ UAlbany +1.4 137.4 63% 74–59 ✗
Northern Iowa @ San Francisco +5.2 135.7 67% 69–75 ✓
Buffalo @ George Mason +2.4 141.0 60% 82–74 ✗
Akron @ Western Kentucky +3.6 136.1 55% 72–53 ✗
Bucknell @ Presbyterian -8.9 135.5 18% 66–65 ✓
Texas Tech @ Creighton +1.8 132.4 64% 65–76 ✓
Indiana State @ East Carolina -5.3 149.9 31% 79–75 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Wichita State -2.4 123.2 34% 43–55 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Tennessee State +0.8 128.5 50% 73–74 ✓
Howard @ Belmont +3.7 148.2 68% 73–96 ✓
UIC @ Stonehill +3.2 147.6 60% 77–71 ✗
Nevada @ Tulane -5.4 135.2 33% 75–66 ✓
Louisville @ Arkansas +13.4 125.4 81% 54–80 ✓
UT Arlington @ Drexel +2.8 128.2 64% 38–59 ✓
Central Michigan @ High Point +3.5 153.1 60% 67–68 ✓
Wyoming @ Boston College +2.1 134.3 57% 48–59 ✓
Western Illinois @ UT Rio Grande Valley +1.3 149.7 44% 77–78 ✓
UAB @ South Florida -9.5 147.5 18% 80–65 ✓
Utah @ Georgia Tech -1.2 131.4 31% 68–64 ✓
Mercer @ Florida State -0.0 147.5 53% 72–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.