In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–16 on winners spread MAE 9.8 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Florida @ Duquesne +19.2 150.4 89% 82–83 ✓
Lehigh @ Saint Francis +6.2 139.4 73% 82–76 ✗
Chicago State @ Marshall +21.8 153.0 90% 70–82 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Charleston Southern +5.7 149.3 68% 63–78 ✓
UL Monroe @ Louisiana Tech +23.5 148.0 90% 58–79 ✓
Holy Cross @ Fordham +12.5 147.7 83% 53–67 ✓
Monmouth @ Colgate +19.7 149.8 90% 66–85 ✓
Syracuse @ Richmond +1.3 137.5 44% 74–71 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Clemson +6.2 145.4 76% 41–72 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Wright State +0.1 142.5 52% 61–77 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Northern Kentucky -3.4 132.8 38% 82–61 ✓
Rhode Island @ Kansas State +13.5 132.7 84% 57–77 ✓
Omaha @ Iowa +29.6 157.3 91% 64–100 ✓
Houston Christian @ Rice +10.6 156.0 83% 67–76 ✓
Drake @ Tarleton State +3.5 138.9 64% 71–64 ✗
Bellarmine @ Duke +23.5 132.4 90% 57–74 ✓
Marquette @ Mississippi State +4.4 134.5 66% 55–58 ✓
Georgia @ Saint Joseph's +0.1 142.2 53% 66–53 ✗
Texas @ Northern Arizona -10.9 137.4 17% 73–48 ✓
Ohio State @ San Diego State +0.6 135.0 53% 77–88 ✓
Washington State @ Eastern Washington -3.7 136.4 33% 82–56 ✓
Hampton @ UC Santa Barbara +10.8 138.4 84% 66–79 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Air Force +4.9 134.7 68% 56–83 ✓
St. John's @ Temple -6.5 152.7 25% 78–72 ✓
UC Riverside @ Weber State -6.9 135.6 22% 72–65 ✓
Texas State @ California +2.8 133.2 55% 59–55 ✗
California Baptist @ Minnesota -3.4 126.0 40% 61–62 ✗
Cincinnati @ Arizona +10.2 159.0 84% 93–101 ✓
Southern Illinois @ UNLV -0.5 125.8 44% 49–56 ✗
East Carolina @ Toledo +1.1 156.1 55% 86–75 ✗
Illinois State @ Western Kentucky -0.1 130.5 51% 66–78 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Grand Canyon +5.9 129.7 73% 67–69 ✓
Austin Peay @ Bucknell +2.4 133.3 58% 65–79 ✓
Sam Houston @ Northern Illinois -11.4 126.1 22% 88–54 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Eastern Michigan -5.9 145.1 29% 74–67 ✓
NJIT @ Sacred Heart +9.3 140.4 74% 85–75 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ UT Arlington -4.5 124.6 37% 56–60 ✗
LSU @ Akron -2.4 138.1 38% 73–58 ✓
San Francisco @ Wichita State +3.4 131.4 61% 67–63 ✗
Texas Tech @ Louisville -13.4 129.8 16% 70–38 ✓
South Dakota @ Long Island University -5.8 145.8 19% 68–58 ✓
North Alabama @ Hampton -3.8 149.6 33% 75–74 ✓
Southern Miss @ Winthrop -11.4 139.4 18% 77–52 ✓
Holy Cross @ UIC +2.8 138.8 53% 66–89 ✓
Georgia @ UAB +4.0 146.0 73% 73–87 ✓
Canisius @ Cornell +13.2 155.7 84% 70–79 ✓
Ohio State @ Cincinnati -7.9 140.4 21% 81–53 ✓
Indiana State @ Kansas City -4.1 144.7 33% 61–63 ✗
Tulane @ Rhode Island -7.0 144.5 25% 78–75 ✓
Bradley @ Auburn -0.3 135.0 48% 64–85 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +4.2 129.4 67% 73–63 ✗
UT Martin @ Arkansas State +7.9 136.2 76% 64–70 ✓
South Florida @ Saint Joseph's +3.2 139.9 62% 75–62 ✗
Bowling Green @ Notre Dame +12.0 147.6 84% 66–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.