Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | LOU +450 TTU -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +32 | 108 | Lost |
| Massey | TTU -17.3 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -11.9 (-20.1) | 130.4 (-22.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -14.0 (-18.0) | 127.3 (-19.3) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -14.6 (-17.4) | 128.7 (-20.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -13.4 (-18.6) | 129.8 (-21.8) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 5-13 |
| Home | 4-13 | 11-6 |
| Away | 0-11 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#344) | 6.5 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.10 (#362) | 0.87 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.70 (#353) | 1.20 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.331 (#326) | 0.569 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.43 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 26.2% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
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