Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | WIN +100 USM -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +25 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -15.1 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -11.2 (-13.8) | 138.3 (-9.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -9.0 (-16.0) | 139.7 (-10.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -11.3 (-13.7) | 140.1 (-11.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -11.4 (-13.6) | 139.4 (-10.4) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 67.5 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#251) | 10.9 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#261) | 3.20 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#252) | 4.73 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#237) | 0.703 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 42.3% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 62.7% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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