Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | FOR -800 HC +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +14 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -15.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -12.3 (+1.7) | 148.0 (-28.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | FOR -11.9 (+2.1) | 144.4 (-24.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | FOR -12.0 (+2.0) | 146.4 (-26.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -12.5 (+1.5) | 147.7 (-27.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | HC 70 – 69 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 18-2 | 6-9 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#201) | -8.7 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#150) | -4.31 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#156) | -7.15 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#94) | 0.360 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 60.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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