Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | FOR -625 HC +455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +1 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | FOR -8.1 (-9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -6.2 (-7.2) | 129.3 (+9.7) | 71% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | FOR -5.9 (-6.9) | 130.0 (+9.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | FOR -5.9 (-6.9) | 128.8 (+10.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -5.9 (-6.9) | 129.3 (+9.7) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 22, 2022 | FOR 67 – 53 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#227) | -6.8 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#246) | -1.15 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#255) | -1.67 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#312) | 0.433 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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