Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ -400 UNF +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +1 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -23.7 (-22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -19.9 (-18.9) | 153.6 (+11.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -14.5 (-13.5) | 154.7 (+10.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -17.8 (-16.8) | 148.8 (+16.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -19.2 (-18.2) | 150.4 (+14.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#84) | -10.3 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#107) | -1.08 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#112) | -2.64 (#305) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#141) | 0.443 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.2% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 61.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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