Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV +110 SIU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +7 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -1.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -1.3 (+8.3) | 131.0 (-26.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -0.9 (+6.1) | 128.9 (-23.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -1.0 (+8.0) | 127.2 (-22.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -0.5 (+7.5) | 125.8 (-20.8) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 61.7 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#105) | 5.4 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#53) | 1.93 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.48 (#66) | 1.97 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.693 (#24) | 0.589 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 32.5% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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