Betting Lines
| Spread | LSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | AKR +200 LSU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LSU +15 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | LSU -5.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -2.2 (-12.8) | 136.8 (-5.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -4.5 (-10.5) | 137.5 (-6.5) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -3.2 (-11.8) | 139.5 (-8.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -2.4 (-12.6) | 138.1 (-7.1) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 2-16 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#161) | 5.8 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#42) | 1.82 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#42) | 2.58 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.673 (#30) | 0.535 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 32.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.7% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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