Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +11 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | OSU -0.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+33.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -1.1 (+9.9) | 139.6 (+25.4) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -0.4 (+11.4) | 141.9 (+23.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -0.8 (+10.2) | 138.3 (+26.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -0.6 (+10.4) | 135.0 (+30.0) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-15 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#36) | 10.7 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#11) | 0.77 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.16 (#11) | 1.12 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.852 (#2) | 0.431 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 49.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 39.2% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 33.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 12.0% |
Game Analysis
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