Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +3 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -6.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -4.5 (-1.5) | 134.4 (-21.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -4.1 (-1.1) | 132.3 (-19.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -4.3 (-1.3) | 135.3 (-22.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -4.4 (-1.4) | 134.5 (-21.5) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#6) | 9.2 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#14) | 0.76 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.08 (#12) | 1.03 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.755 (#9) | 0.566 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 42.0% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 13.7% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.1% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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