Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | AF -275 UPST +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +27 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | AF -9.8 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -5.5 (+21.5) | 134.7 (+4.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -5.0 (+22.0) | 132.5 (+6.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -4.9 (+22.1) | 134.4 (+4.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -4.9 (+22.1) | 134.7 (+4.3) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-9 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#309) | -10.2 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.73 (#346) | -0.70 (#242) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.71 (#336) | -1.51 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.267 (#353) | 0.495 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 26.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 18.8% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 59.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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