Betting Lines
| Spread | UIC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UIC -200 HC +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UIC +23 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UIC -0.5 (+22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -2.7 (+20.3) | 141.5 (+13.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -2.9 (+20.1) | 140.6 (+14.4) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -2.6 (+20.4) | 137.8 (+17.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -2.8 (+20.2) | 138.8 (+16.2) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIC | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-8 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#314) | -8.7 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#283) | -4.31 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.40 (#296) | -7.15 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#269) | 0.360 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIC | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 15.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 60.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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