Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +13 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -1.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -0.2 (-13.2) | 141.4 (-22.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -0.1 (-13.1) | 140.4 (-21.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -0.7 (-13.7) | 140.8 (-21.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -0.1 (-13.1) | 142.2 (-23.2) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#185) | -2.0 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#164) | 0.92 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#170) | 1.38 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#212) | 0.584 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 77.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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