Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -125 USF +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +13 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -4.4 (-17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -3.3 (-16.3) | 138.1 (-1.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -3.5 (-16.5) | 136.0 (+1.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -2.4 (-15.4) | 138.5 (-1.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -3.2 (-16.2) | 139.9 (-2.9) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 9-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#185) | -5.0 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#164) | -3.27 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#170) | -4.20 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#212) | 0.382 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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