Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | EMU +145 PFW -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -6.8 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -4.9 (-2.1) | 147.1 (-6.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -5.6 (-1.4) | 148.0 (-7.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -5.7 (-1.3) | 145.8 (-4.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -5.9 (-1.1) | 145.1 (-4.1) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2025 | PFW 80 – 65 EMU |
| Dec 15, 2024 | PFW 99 – 76 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 6-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-13 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#301) | -0.4 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.62 (#343) | 0.58 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.84 (#339) | 0.59 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.330 (#327) | 0.605 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 34.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 84.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.5% | 10.3% |
Game Analysis
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