Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PFW -180 EMU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | EMU -0.4 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -1.6 (+13.4) | 144.0 (+1.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -0.0 (+15.0) | 141.2 (+3.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -0.7 (+14.3) | 142.1 (+2.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -0.6 (+14.4) | 146.1 (-1.1) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2024 | PFW 99 – 76 EMU |
| Nov 22, 2022 | PFW 74 – 67 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-11 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#268) | -1.1 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#232) | 0.51 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#259) | 0.56 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#236) | 0.507 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 28.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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