Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | EMU +200 PFW -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +23 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -4.1 (-18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -5.9 (-17.1) | 146.8 (+28.2) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -3.2 (-19.8) | 148.0 (+27.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -3.1 (-19.9) | 149.8 (+25.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -4.7 (-18.3) | 148.7 (+26.3) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2025 | PFW 80 – 65 EMU |
| Nov 22, 2022 | PFW 74 – 67 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#286) | 1.8 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#175) | 0.32 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#217) | 0.50 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#191) | 0.520 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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